Introduction: The Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India Natural Gas Pipeline (TAPI) Project aims to export up to 33 billion cubic meters (bcm) of natural gas per year through a proposed approximately 1,800-kilometer (km) pipeline from Turkmenistan to Afghanistan, Pakistan and India. The TAPI pipeline will begin in Turkmenistan and travel through Afghanistan to reach Pakistan and India. It will cross the cities of Herat and Kandahar in Afghanistan towards Pakistan, and cross the cities of Quetta and Multan in Pakistan towards its final destination, the Indian town of Fazilka, which is located on the Pakistan-India border in the state of Punjab.
Historical Background: The TAPI Project was originally conceived in the 1990s with a view to monetize Turkmenistan’s gas reserves through gas exports to Afghanistan and Pakistan, and, potentially to India. In March 2003, India was invited to join the Project.
In 2012, the governments of Turkmenistan, Afghanistan, Pakistan and India formally agreed to build the transnational pipeline to supply approximately 30 billion cubic meters per year of Turkmen natural gas to India. Kandahar and Herat provinces will be the host provinces of the TAPI pipeline gas project as they would cover over 735 kilometers of Afghanistan – almost 44 percent of the pipeline. Afghanistan would earn a total of $400 million per year by way of a “transit” fee.
In 2013, Turkmengaz, Afghan Gas Enterprise, Interstate Gas Service, and GAIL were nominated as shareholders by their respective countries to promote and invest in the pipeline project. In 2016, efforts were made on practical level to kick start the whole process.
TAPI and Regional Dynamics:
According to the statistics, both Pakistan and India experience acute deficit in energy that stands at over thousands of megawatts. For instance, in Pakistan gas is widely used for electricity generation (almost 32%) leading to a severe domestic and industrial gas shortage . Some of the solutions to the problem apart from TAPI are: the Iran-Pakistan-India (IPI) gas pipeline, and imports of Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG), particularly from Qatar. However, the withdrawal of India from the IPI project in 2009 and the ongoing row in the implementation of the Iran-Pakistan pipeline make TAPI and the LNG delivery the only available alternatives. For Afghanistan that has long suffered from the internal turmoil, a series of ambitious connectivity infrastructure projects such as the Lapis Lazuli railroad, the CASA-1000 power transmission line and the TAPI pipeline defines hopes for the reconstruction and industrialization held by its government and population. From this perspective, TAPI fits well into this discourse of development as it would provide hard currency revenues in the form of transit fees, create jobs for the population, and once the project is up and running Afghanistan would also gain access to energy to generate electricity and increase the current electrification rate from 20% to 33%, according to Asian Development Bank.
TAPi and Pakistan:
Turkmenistan and Pakistan enjoy mutually respectful and cordial relations underpinned by history, culture and religion. Both countries value people-to-people ties and underscore the need to further augment bilateral cooperation in a variety of fields. (TAPI) gas pipeline is one of the most effective development projects since the countries of the region are energy starved. The collective address to the common handicap will also play a vital role in the regional economic upswing. Most importantly, new avenues of cooperation can promote a common understanding of evolving regional and international issues of interest to both countries. With Pakistan’s growing population and increasing energy needs, Turkmenistan’s energy resources remain strategically important. By paving the way for long-term natural gas supplies to Pakistan, TAPI will help Pakistan overcome its energy shortage. It is also expected to help close Pakistan’s supply-demand gap by up to 1.3 bcf per day. Turkmenistan is a country whose economy depends on natural gas exports. Therefore, the realization of TAPI is very important for Ashgabat. In addition, as a landlocked country, Turkmenistan aims to have more trade opportunities by sea. Therefore, Pakistan is also important for Turkmenistan with its ports. Hence, TAPI is not just an energy transportation project; it means much more to Ashgabat. The cooperation processes, reaching new partnerships, expanding its sphere of influence, and building interdependence that energy trade will bring will allow Ashgabat to increase its economic outlook and improve its capacity.
Challenges:
1) Afghan Security Dilemma: Security environment in Afghanistan is volatile especially after Taliban takeover on 15 August 2021, which creates hurdles in the way of TAPI project. The incumbent Taliban government needs to prioritize its security, among other issues, to help build pipeline that has the potential to garner millions of dollars through TAPI.
2) Pak-India Relations: Pakistan-India relations are central to lack of regional connectivity and moribund geoeconomics, TAPI is one of those initiatives that suffer due to strained relationship between Paksiatn and India.
Similarly other issues of funding, resource allocation are also stumbling blocks in the successful completion of TAPI.
Conclusion:
In nutshell, it can be said that TAPI has enormous potential to meet the energy needs of the energy-starved region. Moreover, increased regional connectivity provides a gateway for future interconnectedness between South Asia and Central Asia. For Pakistan, TAPI has the potential to revitalize it’s economic potential as most of the energy Pakistan consumes is imported from foreign countries. Hence, TAPI can be a game changer not only for Pakistan and India but also for Afghanistan and Turkmenistan.